Farm Land Prices in Ontario: A Look at Trends, Forces, and the Future

Written By Jeff Roy

When you think of farmland in Ontario, you might envision the golden rows of corn in Huron County, the rolling soil in Oxford, or the emerging frontier of Grey and Bruce Counties. But beneath the rows of crops lies a powerful story—one of economics, climate shifts, community, and generational stewardship. In 2025, I had the opportunity to attend a seminar led by Ryan Parker, a well-respected voice in Ontario land valuation. What I learned from Ryan and others in the room paints a compelling picture of where we’ve been, where we are, and where Ontario’s farmland market is headed.

A Historical Snapshot: From $6,000 to $44,000 per Acre

In 2010, farmland in Huron County averaged around $6,000 per acre. Fast forward to 2025, and we’re seeing prices upwards of $27,000 in Huron, and as high as $30,000–$44,000 in Grey County for top-quality land parcels. These numbers aren’t just a reflection of inflation; they’re the result of market pressures, yield expectations, supply and demand, and broader agricultural and economic shifts.

Ryan Parker, whose 2024 Land Value Study was sponsored by CIBC and Metzger Meat Products, showed how the land appreciation curve has steepened over the last 15 years. In fact, between 1985 and 2009, farmland value in Ontario appreciated at about 4.9% annually. But from 2010 to 2024, that number jumped to 11.25% annually, with some counties like Oxford, Perth, and Huron leading the upward charge.

The Regional Breakdown: What the Counties Reveal

Here’s a snapshot of some of the counties discussed during Ryan Parker’s seminar:

• Huron County: One of the most valuable regions for farmland due to a high density of livestock (especially dairy and poultry). Demand remains strong, even as prices reach $27,000+ per acre.
• Grey County: Once known for its rocky terrain and stone pickers, Grey is now an emerging frontier. With climate change yielding better rainfall and crop yields (150 bushel corn in some areas), land is selling for $30,000 to $44,000 per acre.
• Bruce County: Seeing migration of farmers from the south. Farmers from Huron and Perth are buying here, drawn by affordability and good growth potential.
• Perth & Oxford: High demand due to livestock density and supply-managed agriculture. Land values remain robust, with many parcels exceeding $30,000 per acre.
• Kent & Essex: Experiencing a shift. Once booming livestock regions, these counties now have fewer than 15 dairy farms each. Land values here are lower due to reduced supply-managed operations.
• Elgin, Middlesex, and Lambton: These southwestern counties are seeing prices taper off compared to their northern neighbours, although proximity to London and urban sprawl still adds some upward price pressure.
• Cochrane & New Liskeard (Northern Ontario): Farmers are migrating north in search of cheaper land. In some cases, land in Northern Ontario is one-third the price of Huron County.

Four Major Drivers of Land Values

1. Crop Prices (Corn & Soybeans)
   • When corn hits record prices, land values follow suit. As Ryan noted, corn yields around 180–200 bushels per acre remain a benchmark. Farmers buy land with the expectation of sustainable crop profits.
2. Interest Rates
   • As borrowing becomes more expensive, speculative land buying slows. Ryan highlighted a drop from 11% annual land value appreciation to 7%, likely due to rising interest rates.
3. Livestock Density & Supply Management
   • Counties with dairy, poultry, and hog operations see consistently higher land prices. The supply-managed system provides price stability and drives demand.
4. Migration & Affordability
   • Many farmers are “cashing out” in expensive counties and reinvesting in more affordable areas. This trend is strong in Bruce, Grey, and parts of Northern Ontario.

Climate Change and Yield Potential

Climate change has paradoxically made some northern counties more agriculturally viable. In years past, Grey and Bruce were considered less productive. Now, with improved rainfall and longer growing seasons, they are seeing impressive yields and land appreciation.

2025 and Beyond: Where Are We Headed?

Based on current data and Ryan’s projections, here are trends we can expect to see in 2025:

• Moderated Growth: Expect land prices to increase in the 0–10% range, unless there’s a major spike in crop prices.
• Northward Expansion: More movement into Bruce, Cochrane, and Grey as farmers chase affordability and yield potential.
• Consolidation: Fewer small farms; more mid-to-large operators expanding acreage.
• Continued Pressure from Interest Rates: Until rates stabilize or drop, buying power will remain constrained.

Community and Culture: More Than Numbers

The seminar wasn’t just about dollars and cents. It was also about people, tradition, and community. From longtime landowners like David Palmer and David Sparling, to local leaders like Lisa Thompson, to business supporters like Metzger and CIBC, the message was clear: farmland is a cultural asset as much as a financial one.

As someone who grew up in rural Ontario, I felt that deeply. We can talk about data, yield, or interest rates, but we can’t forget the emotional bond to the land—something Ryan captured beautifully.

Reflections and Responsibility

If there’s one thing I took away from Ryan Parker’s talk, it’s this: the next decade will be defined not just by who owns the land, but by how we value it.

Land isn’t a cash cow. It’s a long game. A generational asset. A foundation for food security, local economies, and rural culture.

As leaders in business, government, and agriculture, we have a responsibility to protect the integrity of Ontario’s farmland while supporting innovation, access, and environmental sustainability. Whether that means smarter tax policies, better support for young farmers, or stronger rural healthcare—we need to act.

Because when we take care of the land, it takes care of us.